Texas is experiencing a record-setting heat wave, but the current scorching temperatures aren’t directly related to the recently emerged El Niño weather pattern. While El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the northern U.S. and wetter conditions to the Gulf Coast and Southeast, its influence is not yet being felt in this summer’s heat. Instead, a more immediate culprit is responsible: the subtropical ridge.
This weather phenomenon, a high-pressure system, establishes itself over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, often extending northward or towards the South Plains. The ridge acts as a heat dome, trapping hot air and leading to prolonged periods of high temperatures. It’s this subtropical ridge, currently positioned over Arizona and New Mexico, that’s driving the extreme heat in Texas.
El Paso, situated directly under the ridge’s influence, recently shattered its 1994 record for consecutive days above 100 degrees, reaching 23 days and counting. The intense heat is expected to persist for at least another week, with forecasts showing no signs of relief.
As the subtropical ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the San Antonio area will also face temperatures exceeding 100 degrees. The prolonged drought conditions resulting from years of La Niña, El Niño’s counterpart, contribute to the dry and hot environment, exacerbating the heatwave’s impact.
The National Weather Service has issued excessive heat warnings and advisories for various regions in Texas, including El Paso, Central Texas, South Texas, Southeast Texas, and parts of the Midland/Odessa area. These warnings underscore the severity of the heat and urge residents to take precautions.
While the immediate heatwave is attributed to the subtropical ridge, the long-term effects of El Niño remain uncertain. Experts predict that El Niño’s influence will become more apparent in the fall and winter, potentially leading to further temperature increases and altered weather patterns. The World Meteorological Organization has cautioned about the possibility of even hotter conditions and encourages preparedness for the evolving climate situation. The preceding years of La Niña, characterized by strong trade winds pushing warm water towards Asia and colder water towards the Americas, contributed to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest. The shift to El Niño, with its subsiding winds and warm water returning to the American west coast, will bring different, and potentially more extreme, weather patterns.
