Antarctica’s temperature varies greatly depending on location and time of year. While it’s challenging to provide a single “today” temperature for the entire continent, understanding the factors influencing Antarctic temperatures is crucial. The relationship between greenhouse gases and Antarctic temperature, as revealed by ice core data, suggests a warming trend. However, the climate system’s complexity, coupled with regional variations and time lags, makes pinpointing a precise temperature difficult. Different areas respond differently to the “forcing” effect of greenhouse gases, and it takes time for atmospheric changes to impact weather patterns. Meaningful climate trends also require years of data to distinguish from random weather fluctuations.
Instrumental records, meaning weather stations with standardized data collection over extended periods (typically 30+ years), are relatively scarce in Antarctica. However, existing data provides some insights. The Antarctic Peninsula stands out as the fastest-warming area in the Southern Hemisphere, with a mean annual temperature increase of approximately 3°C over the past 50 years. This stark contrast to the global average surface air temperature rise of 0.74°C over the past century highlights the unique changes occurring in this region. This warming trend has significant consequences, contributing to the disintegration of the Peninsula’s ice shelves.
In contrast to the Peninsula, the interior of Antarctica hasn’t shown a clear warming trend based on available climate records. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in its Fourth Assessment (2007) that Antarctica, as a whole, lacks significant human-caused warming over the past 50 years. However, recent satellite data suggests a warming trend in West Antarctica, sparking debate within the scientific community. One possible explanation for the temperature difference between the Peninsula and the interior lies in the influence of the ocean. As sea surface temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse gases, maritime air masses absorb this warmth. The Peninsula, surrounded by sea, experiences a greater heat transfer from the ocean compared to inland areas. The near-surface temperature of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current west of the Peninsula has risen by about 1°C in the last 50 years, further supporting this theory. This oceanic influence significantly impacts the Peninsula’s climate.
