Voters in the US will head to the polls to elect their next president. While the election was initially expected to be a rematch of 2020, President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice-President Kamala Harris changed the landscape. The central question now is: will America elect its first woman president or see a second Donald Trump term? Understanding the current presidential polls is crucial for grasping the potential outcome.
National polls provide a general overview of candidate popularity across the country. Harris has maintained a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages since entering the race.
Following a surge in the initial weeks of her campaign, Harris established a lead of almost four percentage points by the end of August. While polls remained relatively stable in September and early October, recent weeks have witnessed a tightening in the race. The trend lines illustrate the average poll results for each candidate, with individual poll results represented by dots.
However, national polls don’t definitively predict the election outcome due to the Electoral College system. Each state receives a number of electoral votes based on its population, totaling 538. To win, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes.
Because most states consistently vote for the same party, the election outcome hinges on a few key battleground or swing states where both candidates have a viable chance of winning. These are the states where the election will be decided.
Current leads in swing states are minimal, making it difficult to definitively determine who is ahead based solely on polling averages. Polls gauge public sentiment towards candidates and issues, not predict election results with pinpoint accuracy, especially within a small percentage point difference.
Furthermore, individual polls contributing to these averages have a margin of error of approximately three to four percentage points. The actual performance of either candidate could deviate from the current numbers. Examining trends since Harris entered the race reveals variations among swing states. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, the lead has shifted multiple times since August, with Trump currently holding a slight edge.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris initially led since August, sometimes by two or three points. However, recent weeks have seen significant tightening, with Trump even leading in Pennsylvania at times. Recapturing these states, which were Democratic strongholds before Trump’s 2016 victory and reclaimed by Biden in 2020, is crucial for Harris’s election prospects. The shift in the race since Harris became the Democratic nominee is evident. When Biden withdrew, he trailed Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in the seven swing states.
The polling averages used in this analysis are from the polling analysis website 538, part of ABC News. They compile data from various national and battleground state polls conducted by different polling companies. 538 employs quality control measures, including criteria for transparency regarding the number of people polled, the timing of the poll, and the methodology used (phone calls, text messages, online, etc.).
While polls offer insights into the electoral landscape, it’s crucial to consider their limitations. Polls underestimated support for Trump in the past two elections. The 2020 national polling error was the highest in 40 years. Factors contributing to past inaccuracies include last-minute voter decisions, overrepresentation of college-educated voters in samples, and difficulties engaging Trump supporters in polls.
Despite pollsters implementing changes and achieving relative success in the 2022 midterm elections, the absence of Trump from the ballot then makes it uncertain whether these adjustments will address the unique challenges posed by his voter base. The true accuracy of current presidential polls will only be revealed after election day.
