Looking to capitalize on tonight’s MLB action? We’ve analyzed home run projections and MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to identify the best home run prop bets for today’s games. Our analysis leverages insights from numberFire to pinpoint high-value opportunities. Remember, betting lines and projections can shift, and weather can impact games.
Today’s Top Home Run Prop Bets
Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+360) – Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Antonio Senzatela makes his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery. Returning from a significant injury and pitching at Coors Field, a hitter-friendly park known for its high altitude, makes Senzatela vulnerable. The Diamondbacks offense is formidable, and Eugenio Suarez is a prime candidate to capitalize.
Suarez boasts a 16.7% barrel rate, 46.2% fly-ball rate, a remarkable 179 wRC+, and a .337 ISO over the past month. Since July 7th, he leads MLB in home runs with 22, surpassing even Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. His 46.3% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers, coupled with a low 6.2% walk rate, sets him up for favorable at-bats against Senzatela.
Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+400) – Dodgers @ Braves
Despite facing a tough lefty in Max Fried, Shohei Ohtani’s +400 odds present excellent value. Ohtani has already smashed 47 home runs this season and consistently delivers power. While he lacks the platoon advantage, Ohtani still boasts a .219 ISO, .490 SLG, and 129 wRC+ against southpaws.
Fried has shown vulnerability to left-handed hitters, surrendering a .381 wOBA, .472 SLG, and 1.52 HR/9 to them. Ohtani’s recent form is scorching, with a 23.1% barrel rate, 64.1% hard-hit rate, 51.9% fly-ball rate, and a league-leading .356 ISO over the last 30 days. His position at the top of the Dodgers’ lineup maximizes his plate appearance opportunities, enhancing his chances of going deep. A potential matchup against a right-handed reliever later in the game further strengthens Ohtani’s outlook.
Cody Bellinger to Hit a Home Run (+560) – Athletics @ Cubs
Joey Estes leads MLB in fly-ball rate allowed (56.6%), making his opponents attractive targets for home run props. Estes’ struggles are particularly pronounced against left-handed batters, allowing a .215 ISO, .444 SLG, 1.51 HR/9, and a staggering 56.0% fly-ball rate. Cody Bellinger, with a recent .206 ISO and 42.9% fly-ball rate, is perfectly positioned to exploit this matchup.
Bellinger’s season-long 45.6% fly-ball rate ranks among the league’s best. The combination of a fly-ball pitcher, a hitter with a propensity for lift, and the platoon advantage in Bellinger’s favor makes his +560 odds highly appealing. Bellinger’s recent power surge, including four home runs in his last 10 games, adds further weight to this prop bet.
These are just a few of the enticing home run prop bets available today. Remember to check the latest odds and consider all factors before placing your wagers. Good luck!
