National polls indicate a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. While Harris initially held a slight lead, recent trends show a narrowing gap.
The US electoral college system, which allocates votes based on state population, determines the election winner. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency. National polls offer a broad overview, but the outcome hinges on key battleground states.
These swing states, where both candidates have a realistic chance of winning, heavily influence the final result. Current polling data from these states shows a neck-and-neck race, often within the margin of error.
Leads in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina have fluctuated since Harris entered the race, with Trump currently holding a slight edge. In traditionally Democratic Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris’s initial lead has diminished, with Trump gaining ground and occasionally leading in Pennsylvania. These states, crucial in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, will likely play a decisive role again.
538, a polling website affiliated with ABC News, compiles and analyzes national and state polling data, employing quality control measures for poll inclusion based on transparency and methodology.
Historically, polls have underestimated support for Trump. The 2020 election saw the largest national polling error in 40 years. Factors contributing to inaccuracies include last-minute voter decisions, demographic imbalances in polling samples, and difficulty engaging Trump supporters. Pollsters have made adjustments, and the 2022 midterms showed improved accuracy. However, Trump’s absence from the midterm ballot leaves uncertainty about whether these changes will adequately account for his unique voter base.