The last major earthquake to hit Lima, Peru’s capital, was in 1746, triggering a devastating tsunami that killed roughly a tenth of the then 50,000 residents. Today, with over 10 million people, Lima faces the overdue threat of another major earthquake, potentially reaching a magnitude of 8.8, according to Carlos Zavala, director of the Peruvian-Japanese Center for Seismic Research and Disaster Mitigation (CISMID). This would place it among the top 10 most powerful earthquakes ever recorded.
Despite its precarious location on the seismically active Pacific Rim, Lima remains woefully unprepared for a major earthquake and potential tsunami. Peruvian policymakers have consistently ignored warnings from scientists about the inevitability of such a disaster. When the “big one” hits, Peru risks becoming a stark example of how ineffective governance can worsen the devastating consequences of natural disasters.
Experts estimate that a staggering 80 percent of Lima’s homes lack proper architectural, engineering, and regulatory oversight. This widespread informal housing construction poses a significant threat to life safety. A 2009 study by the Center for the Study and Prevention of Disasters projected that a major earthquake could result in up to 51,000 deaths, 686,000 injuries, and the collapse of 200,000 homes. A more recent 2017 study by Peru’s National Institute of Civil Defense estimated fatalities could reach 110,000, potentially surpassing the death toll of the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that devastated Turkey and Syria in February.
While Peru experiences frequent earthquakes, including deadly ones like the 2007 quake south of Lima that claimed 595 lives and the 1970 Ancash earthquake that buried entire villages, killing 70,000 people, a major seismic event centered in or near Lima would dwarf these tragedies.
The Peruvian Congress, plagued by a 90 percent disapproval rating and allegations of corruption and inefficiency, has largely ignored the urgent need for improved disaster preparedness. Lawmakers appear more focused on dismantling democratic institutions and shielding themselves from graft investigations than addressing the looming threat of a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami.
Peruvian President Dina Boluarte, facing an 84 percent disapproval rating, is widely perceived as beholden to lawmakers. Having ascended to the presidency following the impeachment of Pedro Castillo, Boluarte seems focused on maintaining power until the 2026 elections, prioritising political survival over proactive disaster preparedness.
As Peru’s political crisis deepens, the inevitability of a major earthquake draws nearer. Experts like Marcial Blondet, an engineering professor specialising in seismic construction, express a sense of helplessness, emphasising the urgent need for societal action to mitigate the potentially catastrophic consequences.
From Greece’s wildfires to Libya’s devastating floods, governance failures have demonstrably amplified the impact of natural disasters. However, the impending earthquake and tsunami threat to Lima stands out due to its clear foreseeability and the lack of adequate preparation.
Experts recommend prioritising three key policy areas: enforcing seismic building codes for new construction, implementing cost-effective retrofits to strengthen existing structures (such as reinforced safe zones and protective meshing for vulnerable adobe buildings), and preparing for the aftermath by ensuring adequate hospital capacity, securing water and food supplies, and bolstering emergency response capabilities.
Beyond the immediate earthquake threat, Peru faces a growing array of climate change-related challenges, including Andean droughts, the looming threat of El Niño, and the potential for devastating landslides. The Peruvian state’s failure to address these risks stems not only from political corruption but also from widespread dysfunction in local governance, exemplified by the minimal spending on El Niño preparedness despite ample allocated funds. The lack of engagement from local officials, evidenced by the poor attendance at a recent earthquake preparedness event, further underscores the systemic challenges hindering effective disaster preparedness. Zavala highlights the pervasive problem of unqualified individuals being appointed to critical disaster management positions due to nepotism and corruption.
Lima’s geographical vulnerability, characterised by soft soil that amplifies seismic waves and steep Andean foothills prone to landslides, exacerbates the risks posed by a major earthquake. However, without significant political reform and a commitment to effective disaster preparedness, the death toll from the inevitable “big one” will be tragically magnified by human negligence.