A recent Mw4.8 earthquake near Buffalo, New York, highlights the seismic risk to the state, especially in densely populated areas like New York City. While damage was minimal, it raises concerns about a larger quake’s potential impact on ageing infrastructure and a high-density population. Modelling shows significant earthquake risk concentrated in the NYC area. Even slight variations in location and magnitude could cause substantial financial losses, potentially exceeding $100 billion in insured damages. Earthquake depth significantly impacts ground shaking and damage, with shallower quakes causing more severe effects.
A 2003 NYCEM study estimated a Mw5.0 NYC earthquake could cause around $8 billion in damages (adjusted to 2024 USD), while a Mw6.0 could result in about $67 billion (2024 USD). This underscores the city’s vulnerability and the potential for significant economic consequences. These estimates, based on 2003 data, don’t account for increased exposure and development since then, meaning the actual economic impact of a major earthquake today could be considerably higher.
Catastrophe models focus on property damage, but a major earthquake’s impact extends beyond physical destruction. A severe NYC earthquake could cripple critical infrastructure, causing widespread disruption. Transport networks, including subways, bridges, and tunnels, could suffer significant damage or collapse, severely limiting mobility.
Essential utilities like water, gas, electricity, and communication systems are also vulnerable. Damage could lead to widespread power outages, communication blackouts, and essential resource shortages, hindering rescue and recovery efforts. Damage to healthcare facilities could overwhelm emergency services and compromise timely medical care.
The economic fallout from a major NYC earthquake could be profound. Businesses could face extended closures, leading to significant financial losses and insurance claims. Financial markets, especially Wall Street, could experience extreme volatility, potentially triggering global economic repercussions. While resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic suggests some business functions could continue remotely, substantial disruption and employee displacement are inevitable.
Past events like Hurricane Sandy and the severe 2023 flash flooding highlight the Northeastern U.S.’s vulnerability to natural disasters and the need for comprehensive preparedness and resilience strategies. These events have reshaped the property market, increasing demand for accurate property valuations and more frequent on-site inspections by insurers.
The far-reaching impacts of the 2023 Canadian wildfires, causing record air pollution in NYC, further demonstrate the interconnectedness of regional and global events and the need for robust plans to protect residents from various hazards.
While a major NYC earthquake’s probability might be lower than other natural disasters, the potential consequences are severe. Analysing the recent Mw4.8 earthquake and considering worst-case scenarios can inform and strengthen ongoing efforts to enhance the city’s earthquake preparedness and resilience. Learning from near misses and diverse insights is crucial for mitigating risks and ensuring a more secure future for New York City.