The size of crowds at political rallies, especially those of former President Donald Trump, has become a focal point of discussion. While the correlation between crowd size and election outcomes is complex, understanding attendance trends can offer valuable insights. This article leverages data from the Crowd Counting Consortium (CCC) to analyze crowd sizes at Trump rallies in 2024 and compare them with previous years.
Trump Rally Crowd Size in 2024: A Deep Dive
The CCC has tracked 37 Trump rallies in 2024, with available crowd size data for 28 events. Averaging around 5,600 attendees, these figures echo the 2023 average of 4,600 (19 events) and the 2022 average of 5,200 (21 events). However, these numbers are significantly lower than the 15,000 average across eight events in 2021, which included the January 6th rally.
Image: A large crowd gathered at a political rally.
Historical Context: Trump Rally Attendance Trends
The 2024 average is comparable to the roughly 5,000 average during the 2020 presidential election year (83 Trump rallies tracked). Yet, it’s a noticeable decrease from the higher averages observed in previous years: 8,100 (10 events) in 2017, 7,400 (44 events) in 2018, and 11,000 (19 events) in 2019. This downward trend raises questions about potential shifts in public engagement with Trump’s political events.
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Image: An aerial view of a political rally showing a substantial crowd.
Comparing with Biden and Harris: Rally Crowd Size Differences
For comparison, President Biden’s seven rallies in 2024 (with crowd size data for four) averaged around 1,300 attendees. Vice President Kamala Harris, since becoming the Democratic nominee, has seen significantly larger crowds at her six campaign rallies, averaging approximately 13,400 attendees.
Methodology: How Crowd Sizes are Estimated
The CCC employs a rigorous methodology for estimating crowd sizes, relying on reports from reputable news sources and social media. Ambiguous terms like “thousands” are conservatively converted to numerical values (e.g., “thousands” becomes 2,000). The final estimate is derived by averaging the lowest and highest reported figures. Notably, claims made by Donald Trump about his rally attendance are excluded due to his history of exaggeration.
Conclusion: Understanding the Numbers
While crowd size alone doesn’t predict election outcomes, it provides a snapshot of public engagement with political figures. The data reveals a consistent trend of smaller crowds at Trump rallies in 2024 compared to previous years, raising interesting questions for political analysts and observers. The CCC’s ongoing data collection will continue to provide valuable insights into these trends as the election cycle progresses.